House Race Ratings: Nov 4

As the polls prepare to open and Senator John McCain appears much more poised to close out a heroic upset electoral college win than just two days ago, let's go over our final Congressional ratings. McCain has in this analysts estimation about a 30% chance of winning the Presidency up from about 5% a week ago. He's closing in the right states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia) and has taken the lead in several red states (Missouri, North Carolina) even though the national poll movement is not strong enough to carry Republicans to victory in Congress. Chances are Obama still wins the Presidency although it is no longer a slam dunk to quote George Tennent and could very well be a cliffhanger. I personally will be working the polls all day long for Democratic Candidates in Florida and will not update this during the day.

Changes in status since the last edition in RED

DEM HELD SEATS

LIKELY GOP

FL 16 (Mahoney)
PA 11 (Kanjorski)

LEANS GOP


TX 22 (Lampson)

TOSS UP


PA 12 (Murtha)
MS 1 (Childers)
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
GA 8 (Marshall)

LEANS DEM

AL 5 (Cramer/Open)
IL 14 (Foster)
WI 8 (Kagen)
NH 1 (Shea- Porter)
KS 2 (Boyda)
CA 11 (McNerney)
PA 4 (Altimire)
KY 3 (Yarmouth)

REPUBLICAN HELD SEATS



LIKELY DEMOCRATIC

VA 11 (Davis/Open)

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

AZ 1 (Renzi/Open)
FL 8 (Keller)
FL 24 (Feeney)
NC 8 (Hayes)
AK-AL (Young)
NY 13 (Fossella/Open)
NY 25 (Walsh/Open)
NY 29 (Kuhl)
NM 1 (Wilson/Open)
IL 10 (Kirk)
MN 3 (Ramstad/Open)
MI-9 (Knollenberg)
OH 15 (Pryce/Open)

TOSS UP

FL-25 (M Diaz Balart)
NY 26 (Reynolds/Open)
MN 6 (Bachman)
NV 3 (Porter)
OH 2 (Schmidt)
OH 16 (Regula/Open)
IL 11 (Weller/Open)
CT 4 (Shays)
WY-AL (Cubin/Open)
WA 8 (Reichart)
CO 4 (Musgrave)
NE-1 (Terry)

LEANS GOP

MD 1 (Gilchrist/Open)
AL-2 (Everett/Open)
CA-4 (Doolittle/Open)
OH-1 (Chabot)
FL 21 (L. Diaz Balart)
NJ 5 (Garrett)
ID-1 (Sali)
PA-3 (English)
AZ 3 (Shadegg)
LA-4 (McCrery/Open)
IL-18 (LaHood/Open)
NM-2 (Pearce)
MI-7 (Walberg)
MO-6 (Graves)
MO-9 (Hulshof)
VA-4 (Drake)

LIKELY GOP (Florida only)

FL-13 (Buchanan)